ALÉM DO RISCO E RETORNO: VARIÁVEIS QUE AFETAM OS INVESTIMENTOS

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risco e retorno

Logicamente os fatores de risco e as possibilidades de retornos são itens fundamentais para analizar investimentos. Porém, imagine que ninguém faça investimentos. Ninguém. Todo mundo está com o dinheiro parado. Ai, lançam uma plataforma de investimentos com todas as opções possíveis. Imóveis, ações, opções, negócios, etc. Se apenas o risco e o retorno esperado fossem as informações disponíveis, todas as pessoas escolheriam a opção com o melhor retorno ponderado pelo risco. Todas as demais opções morreriam na mesa, sem escolhas. Mas não é isso o que acontece, é?

Conhecimento sobre o segmento

Existe uma parte da análise de risco que é subjetiva. Medi-lo não é uma ciência exata, apesar de matemáticos e econometristas passarem anos tentando achar a melhor fórmula para prevê-los e calculá-los. Um investimento se torna mais ou menos arriscado se você sabe os riscos que está correndo e como enfrentá-los. Não é que eles desaparecerão, mas saber quais são e como contorná-los o coloca numa posição muito mais confiante do que outras pessoas.

O mercado imobiliário, por exemplo. É comum dizer que seu retorno é baixo pois seu risco também o é. Porém, quem já se aventurou a comprar uma terra, construir um imóvel e vendê-lo esperando o lucro sabe que não é bem assim. O marinheiro de primeira viagem, normalmente, tem prejuízo ou retornos ínfimos. Porém, quem já está na décima quinta tentativa, sabe exatamente quais os pontos de gargalos e como dançar a música. Apesar de, matematicamente, o risco ser o mesmo para ambos, ser especialista no segmento é um ótima fator de mitigação.

Necessidades particulares

Cada investidor toma decisão baseado nas suas necessidades particulares. Quando se é mais jovem, espera-se fazer investimentos que gerarão um grande upside no longo prazo, mesmo que no curto prazo o fluxo de caixa seja zero, ou até negativo.

Pessoas mais próximas da aposentadoria tendem a se preocupar menos com quanto irão elevar seu patrimônio nos próximos 30 ou 40 anos. O “longo prazo” deles é muito mais curto, e sua expectativa é fazer investimentos que gerem caixa imediato para que possam pagar as suas contas.

Neste prisma, um investidor pode trocar um investimento que pague 12% ao ano por outro que o remunere em 6%, porém, o segundo o fará de forma mensal, enquanto o primeiro de forma anual.

Investir por uma causa

Normalmente reservado aos multimilionários e bilionários, há muitos projetos que tem como objetivo muito mais resolver um problema da humanidade do que gerar retornos em algum prazo qualquer. São exemplos as fontes de energias renováveis, viagens espaciais, investimento em pesquisa e desenvolvimento de medicamentos, etc.

Esta categoria, normalmente, exige uma enorme quantidade de capital e não há perspectiva clara de prazo e, sequer, de retorno. Mas pessoas que ganham mais do que precisam para viver normalmente estão dispostas a fazer este tipo de financiamento.

Identificação Pessoal

Por que investir em imóveis se você pode abrir uma loja? Por que abrir uma loja, se você pode colocar o dinheiro em títulos públicos? Por que emprestar dinheiro para o governo se você pode investir em imóveis?

O ciclo-vicioso dos “porques” de investimentos é infindável. No final das contas, muita gente não nasceu para ser rentista, ou seja, viver de renda, sem efetivamente colocar a mão na massa e trabalhar.

Por essa razão, é comum para pessoas que buscam investidores para projetos, como é o meu caso, receber uma resposta negativa. Muita gente não está disposta a ser apenas um “investidor passivo”, eles precisam do trabalho e do resultado dos investimentos.

Certa vez, ainda no Brasil, atendendo a um cliente, ele pediu para que avaliássemos o investimento em uma rede de academias de musculação. Ao final, fizemos nossa apresentação mostrando que, do ponto de vista financeiro, esta oportunidade não apresentava retornos espetaculares e seus recursos poderiam ser melhor aplicados em outros negócios. Porém, ele decidiu continuar, pois era de sua vontade pessoal empreender neste ramo.

Faça sua própria escolha

Então, na próxima vez que um especialista em investimentos falar com você sobre oportunidades, tenha a certeza que ele falará apenas do ponto de vista financeiro. Se ele for ético, ele vai entender suas razões sobre querer seguir, mesmo que os indicadores de risco/retorno não sejam os melhores. Caberá a você encarar o ônus e o bônus das decisões finais.

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