Um dos maiores clichês em economia é o famoso “quanto maior o risco, maior o retorno.” Entretanto, esta frase está errada. Já me deparei com diversas propostas de investimentos aonde o risco era grande, porém o retorno apresentado não era suficiente para o projeto “valer a pena.” A forma correta de escrever este ditado é “quanto mais arriscado for um projeto de investimento, maior será o retorno desejado pelo investidor.”
Existem diversas formas de achar qual o “retorno ideal desejado” de um investimento. O mais conhecido é o modelo CAPM, que, sem entrar em teoria de investimentos, calcula qual é o retorno mínimo desejado de um projeto levando em conta três variáveis chave:
- o retorno de ativos “livre de risco”;
- o retorno de ativos com mesmo nível de risco; e
- o risco do setor em que se quer atuar.
Esse método é tão simples que as pessoas o utilizam mesmo sem saber, ou de forma não-científica, simplesmente adicionando a quanto o dinheiro rende no banco, um ganho que elas acham interessante para compensar tirar os recursos de um fundo de investimento ou da poupança. Contudo, existem alguns conceitos que precisam ser desconstruídos quando comparamos investimentos:
- não existe ativo “livre de risco”;
- a comparação entre ativos com mesmo nível de risco, muitas vezes, é feita de forma errônea;
- setores iguais em economias diferentes possuem riscos diferentes.
Um ativo “livre de risco” normalmente é referenciado em títulos públicos federais. Esses ativos são considerados “risk free” pois, acredita-se, os governos pagarão suas dívidas. Entretanto, a história mostra o contrário. Muitos países, incluindo Estados Unidos, já deram calote em dívidas. No caso do Brasil, o mais recente foi na década de 80, quando enfrentamos uma das maiores crises econômicas do pais. Neste sentido, devemos encarar a taxa de juros de títulos públicos assim como os bancos encaram a taxa de juros de empréstimos pessoais: quão maior for a probabilidade de um calote da dívida, mais juros deverão ser pagos. É simples: se uma pessoa que possui bom patrimônio, boa geração de renda, e não precise de empréstimos for ao banco solicitar um financiamento para o carro, sua taxa será pequena. Porém, uma pessoa que não tem bens próprios e irá comprometer cerca de 30% de sua renda na parcela de um financiamento for até o mesmo banco, solicitar o mesmo montante, certamente sua taxa será maior que a do primeiro indivíduo.
Quando falamos de investimentos em títulos públicos, os investidores pensam da mesma forma: se for emprestar dinheiro para um país que tem boa capacidade de gerar riqueza o suficiente para pagá-lo no futuro, a taxa exigida será baixa. Caso o país em questão tenha dificuldade de provar que pode pagar este “empréstimo”, os investidores exigirão uma taxa de juros maior.
Sobre este assunto, observamos, muitas vezes, certa incoerência entre investidores. Ao mesmo tempo que possuem recursos suficiente para diversificar seus investimentos, e querem fazê-lo em outros países, uma vez que a taxa de crescimento do Brasil é, e será por, pelo menos 5 anos, baixa, estes mesmos investidores reclamam do baixo retorno, quando comparado com o retorno obtido no Brasil. Para se ter uma ideia, a taxa de juros média em um investimento em títulos públicos federais de 10 anos nos Estados Unidos é de 2,28% ao ano; no Brasil, um título com mesmo prazo e características, a taxa de retorno é de 15,5% ao ano. Como referência, os EUA devem crescer perto de 3% este ano; O PIB Brasileiro deve encolher 3% em 2015.
Outro ponto é que risco comparado de um setor em dois países diferentes não pode ser o mesmo. O conjunto de regras e influenciadores econômicos de um país nunca é igual ao de outro. Por isso, muitas vezes o retorno de dois setores simplesmente não pode ser comparado, a um mesmo nível de risco, em dois países. É preciso levar as condições econômicas que determinarão o desempenho deste setor no futuro, seu marco legal, segurança jurídica, e fatores operacionais em conta.
A construção civil, por exemplo, nos Estados Unidos, tem um perfil de risco muito diferente do Brasil. Na terra do tio Sam, existem diversos mecanismos que protegem o investidor, do momento da constituição da empresa, até à venda das unidades. Podemos citar alguns exemplos:
- a estruturação jurídica pode ser montada de forma que o patrimônio pessoal dos sócios não seja afetado por passivos das empresas;
- pode-se adquirir seguros contra “passivos ocultos” em escrituras, evitando surpresas futuras;
- os recursos são transferidos entre as partes envolvidas por um agente fiduciário, que atua de forma isenta, entre comprados e vendedores, garantindo que o valor devido será pago, e que o ativo será entregue conforme combinado em contrato;
- os documentos contratuais são seguidos e respeitados, sendo muito difícil a anulação de cláusulas ou contratos inteiros – ou seja, ao assinar um contrato, você deve pagar / entregar como ali se estabeleceu;
- a execução da obra respeita etapas pré-estabelecidas pelas prefeituras, que atuam como “auditores” da construção durante obra, certificando a conclusão dentro do exigido de cada uma de suas fases. Assim, reduz-se quase a zero as chances de se terminar uma obra e não receber o “habite-se”;
- todos os contratados devem ser certificados pela cidade de que podem atuar nas suas posições (empreiteiros, eletricistas, encanadores, etc.).
Concluindo, não se pode esperar que a taxa de retorno projetada em investimentos de Real Estate nos EUA seja a mesma obtida no Brasil nos últimos 10 anos. As situações, e condições, são muito discrepantes. Há que se fazer as ponderações corretas. Desta forma, os investidores que buscam diversificar suas carteiras mediante a aplicação de recursos em outros países, devem fazê-lo levando em consideração as condições econômicas esperadas para o futuro em cada uma das economias-alvo. Os recursos no Brasil terão uma taxa de retorno acompanhada pelo risco de se investir lá; os investimentos feitos na Europa ou nos Estados Unidos obedecerão a outras condições. E não é por que podem render percentualmente menos que no Brasil que se tratam de investimentos “ruins.” Muito pelo contrário, podem ser ótimas oportunidades, do ponto de vista da ponderação entre risco e retorno.
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