O DÓLAR E A ECONOMIA

Desde que a situação econômica no país piorou e os escândalos de corrupção ganharam mais força, vimos o dólar subir de R$ 2,50 até a maior cotação em R$ 4,22. Atualmente em patamar de R$ 3,50-R$3,60, muita gente se pergunta: será que cai mais?

Duas matérias veiculadas hoje (26/05/2016) no jornal Valor Econômico ajudam a mostrar que é pouco provável uma maior queda da moeda americana. No artigo “Ajuste se acelera e setor externo tem primeiro superávit em sete anos” (http://www.valor.com.br/brasil/4576767/ajuste-se-acelera-e-setor-externo-tem-primeiro-superavit-em-sete-anos), o periódico mostra como se comportou o comércio de bens e serviços do Brasil com o resto do mundo, bem como os investimentos estrangeiros no país e de brasileiros no exterior. O resultado, em termos de bens e serviços, é lógico: com dólar nas alturas, as importações reduziram-se bastante; da mesma forma, com o real desvalorizado, as exportações ganharam volume. No que diz respeito à investimentos, o Valor aponta, com base nos dados do Banco Central, a forte saída de recursos, principalmente de renda fixa, dando destaque à perda do grau de investimento pelo Brasil nestes últimos meses.

Um segundo artigo, publicado na mesma data, entitulado “Especialistas projetam nova queda no emprego” (http://www.valor.com.br/brasil/4576765/especialistas-projetam-nova-queda-do-emprego), aponta como ainda devemos sofrer, nos próximos meses, com a queda da produção industrial e redução nos postos de trabalho. Mas o que esses dois artigos nos dizem sobre o dólar?

Para projetarmos, prevermos, ou estimarmos a cotação do dólar para um período futuro, precisa-se, antes de mais nada, lembrar de que o dólar, ou qualquer outra moeda, é, antes de mais nada, uma mercadoria como outra qualquer. Sendo assim, ele sofre a Lei básica da economia: se muita gente quiser comprá-lo, seu valor sobe; se houver maior desejo de vendê-lo, seu valor cai. Neste sentido, quando os problemas econômicos e políticos do Brasil começaram a ficar mais intensos, investidores, empresas, governos, atores econômicos em geral, acharam ser mais seguro tirar seus recursos do país. Como eles estavam aqui em ativos cotados em real, para levar para fora, eles precisam, primeiro, transformá-los em dólar e depois retirá-los do mercado.

Quando isso aconteceu, uma grande quantidade de atores econômicos desejou comprar dólares ao mesmo tempo, dando em troca seus reais, a moeda local. O resultado foi que o estoque de moeda estrangeira, neste caso o dólar, foi, rapidamente, reduzido, ao passo que mais e mais pessoas (físicas e/ou jurídicas) continuavam a desejar comprá-los. O mercado de dólar, então, entrou em desequilíbrio, tendo mais demanda que oferta, ocasionando sua valorização.

Nossa economia, hoje, se encontra em um estágio em que os consumidores estão diminuindo, em razão do aumento do desemprego; a renda real perde valor, como consequência da inflação; e as taxas de juros elevadas inviabilizam qualquer possibilidade da indústria fazer novos investimentos. Sendo assim, nosso país, mesmo com 200 milhões de pessoas, vê, dia a dia, seu potencial de consumo interno ser reduzido.

O Governo, nessa história toda, dá graças a Deus todos os dias que o dólar esteja alto. É esta cotação que possibilita nossos produtos serem competitivos no mercado exterior, uma vez que o gringo gasta menos da sua moeda para comprar dos produtos “made in Brazil”. Se o dólar voltasse hoje para R$ 2,50, a situação seria ainda pior, pois não teríamos exportações e, muito provavelmente, passaríamos a comprar produtos importados, alimentando o ciclo vicioso da retração econômica.

O prazo médio de retomada do grau de investimento por países que o perdem é de 7 anos. Além disso, nosso Governo precisa de um dólar nas alturas para segurar as exportações e não piorar ainda mais o desemprego. Esses são os principais fatores para manter o dólar no patamar atual. O quanto tempo durará isto? O mesmo tempo para que a nova agenda econômica seja aprovada, implementada e passe a gerar resultados. O novo Governo está empenhado, mas precisará de muito jogo de cintura para vencer a oposição.

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