Que o Brasil está em crise todo mundo já sabe. Desde 2014 o crescimento econômico cai vertiginosamente. Em 2013, o PIB, soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país, cresceu 3% em relação à 2012. E foi a última vez que esse número foi significativo. Em 2014 a variação foi de 0.5% e, em 2015 e 2016 foi de -3.77% e -3.59%, respectivamente. Ao total, em dois anos, o Brasil retraiu sua economia em 7.5%. E o futuro, infelizmente, não é próspero.
BAIXO CRESCIMENTO PREVISTO
No dia 30/10/2017, uma matéria do Valor Econômico mostrou que nos próximos 10 anos os Investimentos em infraestrutura no país devem continuar a cair. O BNDES, principal órgão do Governo para o incentivo e financiamento de projetos de longo prazo prevê que o valor investido entre 2017 e 2020 será 7% inferior ao que já foi em 2016. E isso é péssimo para o País.
As projeções de crescimento para o PIB para 2017 é de 0.7%, e para 2018 é de 2.5%. Ainda assim, para que o Brasil recupere tudo o que perdeu em nos últimos dois anos, será necessário crescer 8%. Se mantiver a média de 2.5% ao ano, serão necessários 4 anos apenas para chegar no ponto de partida. Até lá, muita coisa já aconteceu.
OPÇÕES NO MERCADO INTERNO
Em 2016, o investidor poderia investir em títulos públicos e ter rentabilidades de 16% ao ano sem correr muitos riscos. Agora, o melhor que consegue é cerca de 9.5% para títulos que vencem em 2020, um prazo relativamente curto. Quando retirado o imposto de renda, seu ganho líquido é de 7.6%. Considerando a inflação projetada para os próximos anos (média de 4%), seu retorno cai para 3.45% ao ano.
Com a queda do PIB e baixo potencial de crescimento, não é a toa que se vê um movimento migratório para operações mais arriscadas, como a bolsa de valores. O Índice Bovespa em 2017 valoriza-se cerca de 25% (até 27/10/2017), um rendimento excelente para quem busca operações de longo prazo.
Muitas empresas também pagam bons dividendos, cujos retornos vão de 3-9% no ano, porém, o investidor ainda pode ter lucro com a valorização positiva das ações. Entretanto, a renda variável assusta muita gente, e nem todo mundo tem estômago para aguentar o vai-e-vem das ações.
MERCADO IMOBILIÁRIO
O cenário para o “queridinho” o mercado nacional também não é dos melhores. Com o país em forte recessão e com baixo crédito, as vendas de imóveis caíram vertiginosamente nos últimos 4 anos. A queda da taxa de juros pode ajudar na concessão de financiamentos habitacionais, diminuindo o custo do comprador. Porém, ainda há um grande caminho a ser percorrido para que a taxa de desemprego de 13% caia e permita que as pessoas voltem a ter renda para adquirirem novos imóveis.
Do lado comercial, nunca se viu tantos imóveis disponíveis para locação. A combinação de valores muito elevados e falta de ocupantes (visto que muitas empresas estão fechando suas portas), reduz o apetite para construção de novas unidades e o estoque poderá levar anos até ser totalmente absorvido, antes de gerar oportunidades para novos projetos.
CAUTELA
Com este cenário em vista, é hora de os investidores terem muita cautela na hora de escolherem aonde colocar seus recursos. O longo prazo pode ser muito promissor para o Brasil, porém, a agenda política é um fator a mais para determinar quão longo será este horizonte. Enquanto políticos brigam pelo poder, população e investidores ficam à sua mercê, vivendo do jeito que dá.
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