QUATRO MOTIVOS PARA VOCÊ INVESTIR NOS EUA

Quatro Motivos para Você Investir na Economia Americana

Nós acreditamos que, em um sistema financeiro interligado como dispomos hoje, todo investidor precisa saber e diversificar seus investimentos de forma global. Por isso, listamos 5 motivos para fazer investimentos na economia americana.

1 – Moeda Forte

A moeda norte americana é, historicamente, sinônimo de segurança. Para começar, ela é a mesma desde que os Estados Unidos são, bem…os Estados Unidos. Diversos países, como o Brasil e a Alemanha, passaram por várias reformar econômicas que tornaram necessária a troca dos meios de pagamento. Outro motivo muito importante é que o Governo Federal dos Estados Unidos tem histórico quase nulo de default.

No Século XIX, alguns estados e cidades deixaram de pagar suas dívidas, porém, sem envolvimento do Governo Federal. O mais próximo de “calote” que o governo dos EUA fez foi, em 1933, quando aprovei a “Resolução Conjunto para Assegurar o Valor Uniforme de Moedas e Papel Moeda dos Estados Unidos”, que declarou inválida as provisões que o governo mantinha com o direito de pagar suas dívidas em ouro.

Fora isso, não há muito histórico de não pagamento de dívidas pelo Governo Americano. Isso faz com que, em momentos de crise em quaisquer outros mercados, os investidores colocam seu dinheiro aonde acredita que reduzirão suas perdas, mesmo que com isso tenham que ter uma remuneração menor.

Nos últimos 10 anos, vimos isso acontecer em diversos momentos, inclusive durante a crise de 2008-2010. Nesse período, nenhum mercado parecia seguro para os investidores: nem os títulos públicos de mercados emergentes, muito menos dos Europeus e Asiáticos. Da mesma forma, com a crise globalizada, não havia nenhuma economia com forte viés de alta. Então, houve uma corrida para os títulos públicos americanos, mesmo com o governo pagando apenas 0,25% ao ano de remuneração. Naquele momento, era melhor não ganhar nada do que perder qualquer coisa.

No gráfico abaixo, vemos o retorno sobre os títulos públicos de 10 anos do Governo Federal americano. Quanto maior o retorno, menor é o preço do título público, resultado de uma generalização de vendas. Isso quer diz que os investidores venderam seus títulos públicos para alocar em outros investimentos, como ações.

US T 10 Y

Observamos que entre 2007-2012, o retorno dos títulos públicos caiu. Isso é o resultado de um excesso de demanda por esses papéis, elevando seus preços no mercado. Naquele momento, os investidores estava se desfazendo de posições mais arriscadas para se protegerem na renda fixa federal. De 2012 para cá, observa-se o movimento contrário: com o baixo rendimento dos títulos e forte perspectiva de crescimento da economia dos EUA, os investidores preferem alocar seus recursos em empresas e projetos na “economia real” que deixar nas mãos do Governo, em busca de mais rentabilidade.

2 – Forte crescimento da economia

Depois da crise, os EUA passaram dois anos com decréscimo de seu Produto Interno Bruto, voltando a crescer em 2010. Naquele momento, o cenário ainda era incerto e a economia apenas recuperava o que havia perdido durante a sua pior crise, desde o crash de 1929. Desde então, os Estados Unidos cresceram a uma média de 2% ao ano, entre 2010-2014 e as projeções do Fundo Monetário Internacional é que para o quinquênio 2015-2020, a média de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto da maior economia do mundo seja de 2,5% ao ano.

3 – Baixo crescimento do Brasil

Já o Brasil, que passou por uma “marolinha” em 2009, voltou a crescer fortemente entre 2010 e 2013, com uma média de 4% ao ano. Em 2014, já sentindo os reflexos do excesso de otimismo, o crescimento foi praticamente zero e agora o país amarga forte desaceleração econômica. Para este ano, a projeção do FMI é de um decréscimo no Produto Interno Bruto na ordem de 3%. No ano que vem, a instituição estima uma piora um pouco mais branda, com queda de 1%. Nos anos seguintes, só passa o crescimento dos EUA em 2020, segundo o World Data Outlook, publicado em 3 de outubro de 2015.

grafico

4 – Facilidade de investir

Aplicar recursos no exterior hoje é muito simples, não precisando ter conta corrente aberta em banco no país em que se quer investir. Basta transferir os recursos do Brasil diretamente para o Fundo de Investimento, corretora ou empresa.

Muitas empresas prestam ajuda completa para aqueles que desejam diversificar seus investimentos em outros países. Essa assessoria passa pela avaliação de projetos e produtos financeiros, ponto de vista jurídico e tributário.

Literalmente, hoje não há desculpa para o investidor não aproveitar as tendências de crescimento mundiais para maximizar o retorno de seu capital. Porém, esta não é uma atividade passiva. O investidor precisa sair da zona de conforto e contar com bons parceiros para não se meter em “furadas”. É preciso ficar de olho aberto.

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